CBS 5 Poll: Dems Win Senate & Governor Seats, Prop 19 Close Call

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS 5) — With just one day until election day, a new CBS 5 KPIX-TV poll shows Democrats as the likely winners for California’s races for U.S. Senate, governor and lieutenant governor.

The final CBS 5 tracking poll also showed voters split over Proposition 19, which would legalize marijuana – but opposition to the measure was clearly gaining momentum.

U.S. Senate
In the race for U.S. Senate, Incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer now enjoys an eight-point lead over Republican challenger Carly Fiorina, 46% to 38%.

Fiorina finished with her lowest poll numbers of the campaign, down from 48% two months ago to the current 38%. However, Boxer has polled at 46% or higher in five of the eight CBS 5 tracking polls.

In the race for Governor, Democrat Jerry Brown holds a clear advantage over Republican Meg Whitman, 48% to 37%.

Whitman’s 37% is her lowest level of support in the eight CBS 5 tracking polls going back over the past four months. Meanwhile, Brown’s 48% is his highest level support in CBS 5 tracking polls.

The poll data shows Brown gained ground among both highly educated and moderate voters. Among those with a college degree, Whitman started six points ahead of Brown, but ends 12-points behind, an 18-point swing during the campaign. In July, Whitman and Brown were even among California’s moderates, but Brown currently enjoys an advantage.

Lieutenant Governor
In the race for Lieutenant Governor, Democrat Gavin Newsom leads Incumbent Republican Abel Maldonado by a 42% to 35% margin.

However, the poll data shows the contest remains close among those polled who said they had voted early, with Newsom’s support heavier among those who said they had not yet cast a ballot.

Maldonado runs strong in the Inland Empire and the Central Valley, but trails the Newsom in the more populated regions of the state. Newsom also enjoys narrow advantages among both men and women, younger and older voters.

Proposition 19

Californians remained divided on Proposition 19, but opposition was solidifying at the wire, with women opposing the measure now more than at any point during the campaign and support in the San Francisco Bay Area currently running no greater than opposition.

“No” had 46%, while “Yes” had 44%, unchanged from CBS 5’s last polling a week ago, and still within the poll’s margin of error.

Arguing against passage is this: among voters who said they had already returned a ballot, Prop. 19 is opposed 57% to 39%. Support is strongest among those who said they had not yet voted and who, ultimately, may or may not.

In CBS 5’s first tracking poll on the marijuana measure four months ago, women supported legalization by 7-points, but now oppose it 51% to 40%. In the Bay Area, “Yes” led by 30-points a month ago, but now is tied. In fact, the poll data showed voters were split in all regions of the state at present.

Download The Complete CBS 5 Poll Results (.pdf)

The CBS 5 poll was conducted by SurveyUSA, whcih interviewed 567 likely California voters between Oct. 26 and Oct. 30. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1%.

(© 2010 CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.)


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