Computer Simulates 50k Super Bowls, Gives 49ers Edge
(CBS) – Super Bowl XLVII will only be played once, and it will be on the field in New Orleans. But with two weeks to fill in between the championship games and the Super Bowl, there’s some time to run some numbers.
PredictionMachine.com, a website that predicts the outcome of sporting events based on computer models, ran more than just “some” numbers. They ran Sunday’s 49ers vs. Ravens match-up through their system 50,000 times to see what the most likely outcome of the game will be.
The 49ers won the game 66.9% of the time, and scored an average of seven points more than the Ravens in the simulations (28.6 to 21.3), with San Francisco outgaining the Ravens by an average of 85 yards per game.
Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco completed an average of 20.9 of 35.3 passes per game, with 1.3 touchdowns and 0.8 interceptions. The 49ers’ Colin Kaepernick completed an average of 17.2 of 28.8 passes, for 1.6 touchdowns and 0.8 interceptions, and rushed for 38 yards.
The 49ers get the edge in the following matchups: San Francisco run offense vs. Baltimore run defense, San Francisco pass offense vs. Baltimore pass defense, and the Baltimore run offense vs. San Francisco run defense (they note this as the difference maker). The only advantage that Baltimore has is their special teams.
This particular computer model has predicted the correct winner of seven of the last nine Super Bowls.
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