SAN FRANCISCO (CBS) – A computer program called the Predictalator, created by Prediction Machine, simulated the NFL season 50,000 times and concluded that the San Francisco 49ers are the most likely team to win the Super Bowl this season, winning in 20.1% of the simulations.
Here’s how the simulations work:
Just as the Predictalator plays each individual NFL game 50,000 times before it’s actually played, it can also play the entire NFL season 50,000 times before it’s actually played. The actual 2013 regular season and playoff schedules have been played 50,000 times, allowing us to compute average records and likelihoods of each team making the playoffs, winning its division and bringing home the Super Bowl trophy.
The Denver Broncos, the AFC’s top-seed, wins the Super Bowl 14.6% of the time. Others of note include the Green Bay Packers (10.5%), New England Patriots (8.9%), Seattle Seahawks (7.2%) and Houston Texans (7.1%). No other team has more than a 3% chance of winning; there are 11 teams that win between 1.5% and 3.0% of the simulations.
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