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El Niño's Heavy Rains Likely To Reach Northern California, Forecasters Say

(CBS SF) -- For the first time the odds are looking good for a strong El Niño to reach Northern California's drought-ravaged reservoirs.

On Thursday, the National Weather Service put the chance of El Niño hitting California this winter at 95 percent.

"This El Niño continues to rank among the strongest in our records," NOAA scientist Emily Becker wrote on Thursday.

Forecasters were previously predicting heavy rains in Southern California but weren't sure about the north.

Figure2_ElNino_rainy_days_610
Number of days with rain or snow (one-day total greater than 0.1 inch) in winter (December-February) during six strong El Niños (1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1991-92, and 1997-98) compared to the average during non-El Niño winters since 1950. (bottom) Details for three locations, showing total number of days with rain or snow during six individual strong El Niño winters (colored lines), the average number during strong El Niños (dark gray bar), and the average during non-El Niño winters (light gray bar). Image by FIona Martin, based on precipitation data from CPC Unified Rain Gauge Data.

A strong El Niño year in coastal Northern California averages about 40 rainy days per winter, December 1 through February 28, compared to about 26 during a non-El Niño winter. Of the six strong recorded El Niño years, Becker said the winter of 1965 was the only one to have fewer rainy days than the non-El Niño average.

Rain needs to fall in the state's northern reservoirs to make the most impact on the drought.

 

 

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