DAVIS (CBS / AP) — A new study shows that an epidemic of the tree disease “sudden oak death” has surged beyond control in California.

The computer model used in the new study published this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences took into account topography, weather and factors like funds available to fight the extremely contagious disease that has killed millions of trees along the Northern California coast since it emerged in 1995.

It suggests that the disease is spreading too fast to eradicate statewide, saying that it will accelerate in the state after 2020 when it is likely to flourish in California’s northwestern corner, where conditions are perfect for it.

Had the state begun fighting the disease in 2002, the study says, statewide elimination may have been possible.

Many in state and federal government have faced criticism for failing to take such stronger actions, the Los Angeles Times reported.

The report is not entirely hopeless, however, and does offer recommendations for fighting the disease on a small scale to slow its growth by focusing on restoring small local forests.

“We’re going to have to learn to live with it, and try to slow its spread with local management efforts and lots of experimenting,” said University of California, Davis ecologist Richard C. Cobb told the Times “We won’t be able to avoid much of the ecological impacts of losing all these trees … but there is still time to avoid the worst possible outcomes of this epidemic by prioritizing trees that are most at risk, and taking steps to protect them.”

Cobb worked on the study with colleagues from North Carolina State University and the University of Cambridge in England.

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