SAN FRANCISCO (CBS SF) – As the Bay Area grapples with an ongoing housing crisis, many communities are decades, even centuries away from meeting their affordable housing goals, a new study finds.
The report from Beacon Economics and the Next 10 policy think tank (.pdf) studied 539 cities across California and their progress on meeting their Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA) goals.
Every five to eight years, jurisdictions receive updated goals to determine how much housing they need to permit, at various income levels, to keep up with growth.
Next 10’s research found most regions in the state are “chronically” behind on permitting housing units, particularly low-income units.
In the Bay Area, the researchers found if current building trends continued, San Francisco and Oakland won’t meet their current goals on building very low-income housing until the 2030s, and San Jose wouldn’t until 2048.
The group estimated some local communities are so behind that they won’t meet their very low-income housing goals until the next century or beyond at the current pace, including Dublin (2107), Concord (2141) and unincorporated San Mateo County (2474). Some communities have not issued permits for any low-income housing at all in the current cycle.
When it comes to moderate-income units, many Bay Area cities are also falling behind their goals. San Francisco is not expected to meet its current moderate-income housing goal until 2045, San Jose won’t reach it until 2080, and Oakland won’t reach it until the 2700s, if current trends continue.
Meanwhile, most Bay Area cities are expected to meet their current RHNA goals for above moderate income units before 2022.
“This disturbing trend reveals how little is being done to alleviate the affordability crisis in California, contributing to rising homelessness and displacement across the state,” F. Noel Perry, Next 10’s founder said in a statement.
The report also found nearly one out of six California cities in their research did not submit reports to the state on whether they were meeting their RHNA goals.
Next 10 also criticized how goals are calculated for some communities. The group found Marin and Napa Counties had housing goals that were significantly lower, as a percentage of their population, compared to other Bay Area counties.
According to a report by the governor’s office (.pdf), 200,000 new housing units need to be built annually to keep up with population growth, but fewer than 750,000 units statewide have been permitted since 2007.
Tim Fang is a digital producer for CBS San Francisco and a native of the Bay Area. Follow him on Twitter @fangtj.