El Nino Picks Up Steam, Increases Chance For Wettest California Winter In Years
(CBS SF) -- Federal climate experts are growing confident that a strong El Nino will drench a drought-stricken California this winter.
On Thursday, scientists at the U.S. Climate Prediction Center reported there is greater than 90 percent chance that El Nino will continue through the Northern Hemisphere this winter, and around an 80 percent chance it will last into early spring.
Warming sea surface temperatures coupled with a westerly wind burst are telltale signs that El Nino is revving its engines and ready to pack a powerful punch.
Strong El Ninos in the past have come with increased rainfall in California, particularly in the winters of 1982-83 and 1997-98 which were among the state's wettest years.
El Nino affects the strength and position of the jet stream, tilting the odds for more rain than average along the West coast and in the Southeast during the winter.
"If the event continues to strengthen (this year), then that's what we'll see," said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. "It's been a while since we've seen one like this."
Scientists said sea surface temperatures anomalies in June exceeded 1º Celsius across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. An anomaly in the range of 1.5 to 3.5 degrees Celsius would be considered characteristic of an El Nino. The warmer and more widespread the water, the stronger the El Nino.
"While we're confident that this El Nino event will continue, there's still plenty of uncertainty about how it will evolve," said Emily Becker, a NOAA research scientist.
But if the simulations were to continue in this trend, then California and most of the Northern Hemisphere is due for wet weather while Indonesia, northern Australia and South America, and Central America are likely to experience much drier conditions.
