Analysts Say Newsom Has Slight Advantage in Recall Election
SAUSALITO (CBS SF) -- Political analysts say recent polls and early returns indicate Newsom can be cautiously confident he'll get to keep his job.
There's going to have to be a major shift if recall supporters hope to turn things around.
Of the more than 22 million ballots sent to voters, about 1 in 3 have been returned.
Voter apathy, admittedly the biggest challenge for Newsom's campaign early on, doesn't appear to be an issue anymore.
"You're being told to vote on one item, the postage is paid, and the ballot is sitting on the counter. Maybe it doesn't take a lot of enthusiasm to just go ahead and mail that in," said Political Data Inc. Vice-President Paul Mitchell.
The rate of return of Democrats and Republicans is similar around 30-to-35%
But because there are nearly twice as many registered Democrats as republicans, Democrats have an advantage with nearly 2 million more ballots submitted at the moment.
"I think a 1.3 million vote buffer going into that last weekend would be more than enough for the Newsom campaign to withstand a big potential redshift at the end," said Mitchell.
That red-shift would happen if enough Republicans show up on Election Day.
As Newsom has lined up Democratic star after star, the absence of a visible GOP figure backing Elder, isn't helping the self-proclaimed Sage from South Central to clear the final hurdle.
"No sitting politician or elected official wants to throw their weight behind a losing candidate," said Lauren Wright of the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs.
"A lot of Republicans, even if they're diehard GOP members, realize that this is an uphill battle and he's certainly not a mainstream figure; he's not a fixture of republican party politics," said Wright.
"Right now it would take a major shift, almost a reversal of the trends we've seen so far in polls and return ballots for the recall and Larry Elder to pull off an upset," said UC San Diego political science professor Thad Kousser.
If a red-shift happens on Tuesday, and the race tightens into the night, Newsom's team can likely count on the final shift to be in their favor, according to political experts.
"Those late ballots we know from study after study, are gonna be strongly Democratic," said Kousser.
There's going to have to be a major shift if recall supporters hope to turn things around.
Of the more than 22 million ballots sent to voters, about 1 in 3 have been returned.
Voter apathy, admittedly the biggest challenge for Newsom's campaign early on, doesn't appear to be an issue anymore.
"You're being told to vote on one item, the postage is paid, and the ballot is sitting on the counter. Maybe it doesn't take a lot of enthusiasm to just go ahead and mail that in," said Political Data Inc. Vice-President Paul Mitchell.
The rate of return of Democrats and Republicans is similar around 30-to-35%
But because there are nearly twice as many registered Democrats as republicans, Democrats have an advantage with nearly 2 million more ballots submitted at the moment.
"I think a 1.3 million vote buffer going into that last weekend would be more than enough for the Newsom campaign to withstand a big potential redshift at the end," said Mitchell.
That red-shift would happen if enough Republicans show up on Election Day.
As Newsom has lined up Democratic star after star, the absence of a visible GOP figure backing Elder, isn't helping the self-proclaimed Sage from South Central to clear the final hurdle.
"No sitting politician or elected official wants to throw their weight behind a losing candidate," said Lauren Wright of the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs.
"A lot of Republicans, even if they're diehard GOP members, realize that this is an uphill battle and he's certainly not a mainstream figure; he's not a fixture of republican party politics," said Wright.
"Right now it would take a major shift, almost a reversal of the trends we've seen so far in polls and return ballots for the recall and Larry Elder to pull off an upset," said UC San Diego political science professor Thad Kousser.
If a red-shift happens on Tuesday, and the race tightens into the night, Newsom's team can likely count on the final shift to be in their favor, according to political experts.
"Those late ballots we know from study after study, are gonna be strongly Democratic," said Kousser.
